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The Ominous Shadow Inventory

by Matthew Rathbun on December 23, 2009

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Interesting Changes

In the past two years I’ve been watched and listened as agents went from having “inventory overload” to complaining that there isn’t any inventory.  The reality is that there is inventory, but it’s not the ubiquitous foreclosure inventory that we once thought was such a burden. 

Especially true in the Prince William area, I recall agents voicing concern about the overwhelming number of distressed properties and how unsalable they were.  Then the media and home buyers started picking up on the knowledge that prices were pretty good.  Now that area is suffering from a lack of well priced homes as defined by their recent experience.

Enter: Shadow Inventory

Reuters.com reported on December 17th, 2009 that the pending supply of homes not yet for sale has jumped from a year earlier, and is now around 1.7 million homes, being held by banks.  This “Shadow Inventory” is up from 1.1 million the year before.  As ominous as that number sounds, First America CoreLogic says that’s still only a 3.3 months supply.

First American CoreLogic said the visible supply of unsold inventory, which measures the unsold inventory of new and existing homes that are currently on the market, was 3.8 million units in September, down from 4.7 million a year earlier. The visible months’ supply fell to 7.8 months in September, down from 10.1 months a year earlier.

As much as we’re hearing about the economy showing signs of slight improvement, there are still indicators that there is a sever imbalance between Supply and Demand for housing.  

It seems that many REO agents are looking around and asking for more inventory as well. It’s funny how at one point, we’re grumbling on our way to present that REO offer, and now we can’t get enough of them.  Most agents will take a REO over a Short Sale, any day.

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HUD Holding Mortgage Lenders Feet To The Fire

I know I’m a bit late on this, but I don’t think everyone has heard the news about the changes to the HUD-1 Settlement Statement and GFE (Good Faith Estimate).  HUD, in an attempt to bring more disclosure to the Consumer and hopefully cut down on predatory lending has adopted new guidelines that take effect on January 1, 2010.  For the consumer it’s great. For the Realtor, it’s one more thing that we’re going to need to keep up to date.  Any changes to the contract will need to get to lender very quickly.

Summary of Changes

There are a number of changes and they can be found on HUD’s very informative website.  They offer this summary:

Fact Sheet on HUD’s final RESPA Rule

    * For the first time ever, HUD will require mortgage lenders and brokers to provide borrowers with an easy-to-read standard Good Faith Estimate (GFE) that will clearly answer the key questions they have when applying for a mortgage including:

          o What’s the term of the loan?
          o Is the interest rate fixed or can it change?
          o Is there a pre-payment penalty should the borrower choose to refinance at a later date?
          o Is there a balloon payment?
          o What are total closing costs?

    * HUD estimates that by improving upfront disclosures on the GFE, and limiting the amount estimated charges can change, consumers will save nearly $700 in total closing costs.

    * Based on substantial public comment, HUD withdrew a proposed requirement that closing agents read and provide a ‘closing script’ to borrowers in favor of a new page on the HUD-1 Settlement Statement that allows consumers to easily compare their final closing costs and loan terms with those listed on the GFE.

    * HUD’s new Good Faith Estimate has been reduced from four to three pages, including an instructional page to help borrowers better understand their loan offer. In addition, the GFE will consolidate closing costs into major categories to prevent junk fees and display total estimated settlement charges prominently on the first page so the consumer can easily compare loan offers. HUD will specify the closing costs that can and cannot change at settlement. If a fee changes, HUD will limit the amount it can change.

    * To help borrowers compare their Good Faith Estimate with their HUD-1 Settlement Statement, each designated line on the final HUD-1 will now include a reference to the relevant line from the GFE. Borrowers will now be able to easily compare their estimated and actual costs in the same manner many commenters suggested.

    * HUD will require lender payments to mortgage brokers (often called Yield Spread Premiums) to be disclosed in a more meaningful way. These payments are directly dependent on the interest rates that consumers agree to. To ensure that HUD’s new requirement will not create a consumer bias against brokers, the Department did rigorous consumer testing and found the new Good Faith Estimate helped consumers to select the lowest cost loan nine-out-of-10 times, regardless of whether the loan was originated by a lender or a broker.

    * Loan originators will be required to provide borrowers their Good Faith Estimate three days after the loan originator’s receipt of all necessary information. To facilitate shopping, loan originators could not require verification of GFE information (tax returns etc.) until after the applicant makes the decision to proceed.

    * HUD will allow lenders and settlement service providers to correct potential violations of RESPA’s new disclosure and tolerance requirements. Lenders and settlement service providers will now have 30 days from the date of closing to correct errors or violations and repay consumers any overcharges.

    * The new, standardized GFE and revised HUD-1 will not be required until January 1, 2010.

Below you’ll find the new HUD-1 and new GFE:

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View more documents from Matthew Rathbun.

Beginning about nine months ago, FAAR’s President Sherry Bailey invited leadership from Dulles, Fredericksburg, Greater Piedmont, Prince William and Northern Virginia Associations to enter into a conversation about the ethical challenges induced by the current market.  That meeting resulted in a monthly forum called the Ethics Dialogue Group. 

One of the first tangible tools of this meeting was the creation of the Short Sale Reference Guide.  The intent is to help create a single source of information to unify practices as well as be a reference guide between Realtors.  The information and future updates will be hosted at www.EthicsDialogueGroup.com.  The downloadable eBook is embedded here: